8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Feb 2006

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 31/03/2006

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Main Features
About this Release

FEBRUARY KEY FIGURES

		Feb 06	Jan 06 to Feb 06
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	17 533.6	0.5
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	17 612.1	0.7

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimate, Percentage change

FEBRUARY KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.5% in February 2006. This follows revised increases of 0.5% in both January 2006 and December 2005.
In February 2006, all states had an increase in the trend estimate. The states with the largest increases were Western Australia (+0.7%), South Australia (+0.6%) and Tasmania (+0.6%).

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.7% in February 2006. This follows revised increases of 0.9% in January 2006 and 0.6% in December 2005.
All states, except the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory, had an increase in the seasonally adjusted estimate. The states with the largest increase were Western Australia (+1.9%), Queensland (+0.8%) and South Australia (+0.8%).

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover decreased by 8.7% in February 2006 compared with January 2006. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) decreased by 11.1%, while the estimate for 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) decreased by 5.4%.
Australian turnover increased by 4.7% in February 2006 compared with February 2005. Chains and other large retailers increased by 4.5%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 5.0%.

NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE	Release Date
March 2006	8 May 2006
April 2006	30 May 2006
May 2006	3 July 2006
June 2006	2 August 2006
July 2006	30 August 2006
August 2006	3 October 2006

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for February 2006 contained in this publication are:

Data Series	Estimate	Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)	15 534.8	123.1
Change from preceding month ($m)	-1 481.8	49.4
% change from preceding month (%)	-8.7	0.3

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 32-36.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

There has been moderate growth for the last four months. Other retailing and Hospitality and services have had at least four months of strong growth. Food retailing and Department stores had moderate trend growth in February 2006, while the remaining industries had weak or no growth.

FOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate or weak growth in the trend since July 2005. New South Wales and South Australia have had moderate trend growth for six and three months respectively, while all the other states have had weak trend growth or been in decline in the last three months.

DEPARTMENT STORES

In February 2006, there was moderate trend growth which followed two months of weak growth. There has been strong growth in Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory for two and four months respectively. Queensland and South Australia have had moderate growth and New South Wales and Victoria have had weak trend growth over the last two months.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

The trend has been weak for the last three months. New South Wales and Queensland have had a decline in the trend estimate for five and four months respectively. By contrast, South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory have had strong trend growth for at least two months.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing and soft good retailing

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

There has been weak trend growth for nine months. Victoria and South Australia have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least eight months, while New South Wales has had weak growth for four months. All other states have had at least two months of moderate or strong growth.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

There has been little or no change in the trend over the last three months. South Australia was the only state with strong trend growth in February 2006. The Australian Capital Territory had moderate trend growth in February, while Queensland has had weak growth for two months. All the other states were in decline in February 2006.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

There has been strong growth in the trend for the last four months. All published states, except New South Wales, have had strong trend growth for at least three months.

TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had moderate trend growth in the last three months. Over the last seven months, the rate of trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has been slower than Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

There has been moderate or strong growth in the trend for twelve months. Victoria and South Australia have had strong growth for two and three months respectively. New South Wales, Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory had moderate trend growth in February 2006 following periods of strong trend growth. The Australian Capital Territory had weak growth in the last two months.

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality and services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

There has been moderate trend growth for four months. Food retailing, Hospitality and services and Other retailing have had moderate or strong growth for 11, six and four months respectively. Department stores have had weak trend growth for two months, while Clothing and soft good retailing have been in decline for six months.

VICTORIA

There has been weak trend growth for four months. Food retailing, Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing have had weak growth for at least the last two months, while Household good retailing and Recreational good retailing have been in decline for the last eight months. Hospitality and services and Other retailing have had strong trend growth over the last three months.

QUEENSLAND

There has been moderate trend growth for 12 months. Other Retailing has had strong trend growth for the last six months. Household good retailing and Hospitality and services have slowed to moderate growth in February 2006 following a period of strong growth. Food retailing has had weak trend growth for six months, while Department stores has had moderate growth for the last two months.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

There has been moderate growth in the trend estimate for three months. Other retailing has had eight months of strong growth, while Clothing and soft good retailing and Hospitality and services have had three and two months of strong trend growth respectively. Food retailing and Department stores had moderate trend growth in the last two months.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

There has been moderate growth in the trend estimate for four months. Department stores, Clothing and soft good retailing and Other retailing have had strong trend growth for at least the last two months.

TASMANIA

The trend growth has been strong to moderate for the past ten months with moderate growth for January and February 2006. Clothing and soft good retailing has had strong trend growth for over 12 months. Food retailing has had weak trend growth for the last five months, while Recreational good retailing has been in decline for three months.